'25 Q1 review

Drawdown, Continued Outperformance, Flight to Special Situations

Dear readers,

I am glad to share that we have amassed a community of 880+ investors who genuinely care about not following the current, but trying to find ways to fly above it. Additionally, I am incredibly grateful to the eight paying subscribers who support my investing journey. As you know, my quarterly reviews will be free to all but still available seven days early to the paying subscribers. They will comprise my most recent thoughts, performance, and outlook.

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Q1 Performance

1. LongView Capital

   During the first quarter of 2025, LongView Capital (a privately managed portfolio) depreciated by 6.44% compared to the -8.1% return for the S&P 500 EUR benchmark.

   Since inception, the Fund has achieved a cumulative return of 26.03% vs. 2.49% for the benchmark.

   While the current super-short cumulative result is satisfactory, I believe I should learn to minimize drawdowns like the one in March by better managing my portfolio structure. The market has rewarded high-risk investments for the past couple of years, and only now will we see who has been swimming naked.

   Nevertheless, I am excited about the fact that I get to build a portfolio that does not exclusively include microcaps or special situations but combines them in a way that allows me to capture the upside of bull markets while still protecting the downside when I play it right.

   I will not be a passive bystander in this market and will extract every inch of opportunity I can find. Read my strategy below.

   

2. #2025 picks

• Legacy Education ($LGCY): -13.2%

• Simply Solventless Concentrates ($HASH): -19%

• Gorilla Technology ($GRRR): 48.81%

• TransMedics Group ($TMDX): 5.13%

Weighted return: +5.44%

There is not much to say here, but I will definitely write more about these companies as they announce earnings.

Positioning

These were my top 3 positions by size at the end of Q1:

TransMedics Group ($TMDX): 17.7%

TMDX engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally. The company offers Organ Care System (OCS), a portable organ perfusion, optimization, and monitoring system that utilizes its proprietary and customized technology to replicate near-physiologic conditions for donor organs outside of the human body. (Finchat description)

TransMedics Group is a company that I like for a couple of reasons:

1. It’s not that cyclical, and patients will need organ donors regardless of the business cycle.

2. It won’t be affected by any tariff policy as the large majority of its revenue is generated inside the US, and its costs shouldn’t be largely affected, either.

3. It’s a stock that is quite predictable and:

   1. It can easily go from super undervalued to a fintwit darling (as already seen not that long ago). These times of extreme depression and euphoria are perfect for investors who can manage their emotions.

   2. Notably, current flight data (a quite reliable indicator of near-term revenue) suggests a potential 20% beat for Q1. Retail anticipation ahead of earnings could trigger price appreciation, offering an opportunity to reduce pre-announcement exposure while maintaining at least a 12% allocation. I also held some short-term calls in my other account for a quick sentiment reversal play before earnings (they were sold in the middle of April and won’t be counted towards portfolio performance).

Nebius Group ($NBIS): 9.5%

Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers. (It is an EU company!)

I won’t go into detail here because there is an excellent free, in-depth article posted by a fintwit analyst covering the company here.

Anterix ($ATEX): 9.4%

Anterix is in a spectrum special situation with high (2x+) short-term upside if it manages to execute on its strategic review, which was announced not long ago after interest from various parties to acquire the company.

The spectrum space is uniquely interesting, and I’m sure I will cover it in the future. In essence, due to the deregulation environment currently being created, M&A should pick up heavily and lead to some consolidation. I believe that Anterix could be a prime target for a buyout.

Final thoughts

All in all, I am focusing on interesting special situation plays that have a lot of room to run if tariff deals happen, but will be okay in any scenario. As of this post's release date, I have started minimally trimming my TMDX position and bought a large chunk of Pitney Bowes, making it my biggest holding. Nevertheless, I am highly bullish on Transmedics, which is still my second-largest position, and I see it as one of the highest upside ones.

Also, I am considering creating an automatic portfolio tracker so that my paid subscribers can see any portfolio changes I make in real time. If you can, please vote on whether you would want that. Thank you!

Disclaimer:

All content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. You are fully responsible for any decisions made after reading my materials. My analysis, which may contain errors, is based on public information such as SEC filings, press releases, interviews, and current events. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

My affiliates or I may hold positions in the securities discussed at the time of publication, and we are under no obligation to maintain them. Neither I nor my affiliates accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this information. Nothing herein is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.